ArCS Arctic Challenge for Sustainability Project

International Collaborative Researches
Evaluate the predictability of Arctic-related climate variations

Theme 5
Study on Arctic climate predictability

Dr. Hiroyasu Hasumi (NIPR)

PI : Hiroyasu Hasumi (JAMSTEC)Implementation Structure

Study Sites : Global, with a focus on the whole Arctic region

Background of the Research

It is being demonstrated that the Arctic environment is rapidly changing together with global warming, and that it also influences global climate variability. In order to know how the Arctic environment will change in the future, we need to reveal how the various factors in the Arctic environment, such as the atmosphere, the ocean, and the cryosphere, interact with one another. On the other hand, it is thought that understanding how the Arctic environment is linked to the climate at low and middle latitudes would lead to better predictability of the climate on seasonal to decadal time scales. Furthermore, for long-term projection of the climate on multidecadal time scales, we also need to precisely evaluate changes in the Arctic environment, as exemplified by the importance of sea level rise due to melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

Overview of the Research

The goal of our theme is to evaluate the predictability of Arctic-related climate variations, wherein we aim to: (1) establish the scientific basis of climate predictability; and (2) develop a method for predicting/projecting medium- and long-term climate variations.

Variability in the Arctic environment remotely influences middle latitudes, including our country, and also the whole world. Since some of the processes specific to the Arctic environment, such as those in the cryosphere, function as a long memory of the state of the climate, understanding the process of remote connections is expected to lead to higher-precision and longer-term prediction of global climate variations. Furthermore, the Arctic region is experiencing the largest changes in the context of the warming climate, and the changes in the cryosphere are deeply related to the acceleration of warming and irreversible changes in the global climate.

Numerical models are widely utilized for studies of the climate, but conventional climate models commonly have large uncertainty in the Arctic region. By making Arctic processes in climate models more sophisticated, we aim to clarify the role of multi-sphere interaction in the Arctic environment. We also aim to reveal the mechanism of remote connections between the Arctic environment and the global climate by conducting climate simulations with the climate models we develop, and by analyzing various types of climate datasets. Furthermore, we aim to predict variability and project changes in the Arctic environment on interannual to multidecadal time scales and assess their influences on the global climate by developing a method to assimilate observed data into climate models, developing a climate model with special high resolution in the Arctic region, and incorporating the ice sheet process in climate models.

In this theme, we conduct massive numerical experiments by utilizing state-of-the-art high-performance computers, such as the Earth Simulator of JAMSTEC.

Schematic for remote connections between the Arctic environment and the global climate

Schematic for long-term climate projection study

Cooperative Institutions / International Projects

World Climate Research Programme / Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (WCRP/PCPI), CMIP6/ISMIP6, APPOSITE

Implementation Structure

Members

Name Institutes
Hiroyasu Hasumi JAMSTEC/The University of Tokyo
Yoshiki Komuro JAMSTEC
Hiroaki Tatebe JAMSTEC
Manabu Abe JAMSTEC
Jun Ono JAMSTEC
Fuyuki Saito JAMSTEC
Tomonori Sato Hokkaido University
Tomohito Yamada Hokkaido University
Teppei Yasunari Hokkaido University
Koji Yamazaki Hokkaido University
Tetsu Nakamura Hokkaido University
Enkhbat Erdenebat Hokkaido University
Yoshihiro Tomikawa National Institute of Polar Research
Name Institutes
Ayako Abe-Ouchi The University of Tokyo
Masakazu Yoshimori The University of Tokyo
Masaki Sato The University of Tokyo
Yoshimasa Matsumura The University of Tokyo
Takao Kawasaki The University of Tokyo
Noriaki Kimura The University of Tokyo
Ryota O'ishi The University of Tokyo
Hiroyasu Kubokawa The University of Tokyo
Takuro Aizawa The University of Tokyo
Hisashi Nakamura The University of Tokyo
Yu Kosaka The University of Tokyo
Bunmei Taguchi The University of Tokyo
Masato Mori The University of Tokyo
Jinro Ukita Niigata University
Meiji Honda Niigata University

Collaborators

Name Institutes
Kei Yoshimura The University of Tokyo
Yoshihiro Tachibana Mie University
Atsuyoshi Manda Mie University
Kazuaki Nishii Mie University
Koutarou Takaya Kyoto Sangyo University
Toru Nozawa Okayama University
Name Institutes
Yasunobu Miyoshi Kyushu University
Kazuaki Kawamoto Nagasaki University
Masayoshi Ishii Japan Meteorological Agency
Takahiro Toyoda Japan Meteorological Agency
Kazuya Kusahara Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (Australia)

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