ArCS Arctic Challenge for Sustainability Project

International Collaborative Researches
Optimization of Arctic observation network for weather and sea ice forecasts

Theme 1
Predictability study on weather and sea-ice forecasts linked with user engagement

Dr. Jun Inoue (NIPR)

PI : Jun Inoue (NIPR)Implementation Structure

Study Sites : Arctic, and midlatitudes

Background of the Research

The Northern Sea Route (NSR) could be an attractive shipping route during the Arctic ice-free period, contributing to socio-economic activities between European and Asian countries. The decline in the Arctic sea ice extent, however, could cause extreme weather phenomena locally and remotely (e.g., cyclonic storms disturbing ship navigation along the NSR, and severe cold winter over the continental land masses). Therefore, accurate weather and sea-ice forecasts are desirable, although there are large uncertainties in current forecasts due to the sparse observational network in the Arctic. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has initiated the Polar Prediction Project (PPP), whose mission is to "Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hours to seasonal." Our research activities aim to add a valuable contribution to a sustainable Arctic observation network and socio-economic benefits.

Overview of the Research

To improve the skills of weather and sea ice forecasts over the Arctic region, international collaborative research will be conducted linking several international projects (PPP, S2S, etc.). There are three research themes: (1) intensive Arctic observations during the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) and observation system experiments based on a data assimilation technique; (2) predictability studies on weather extremes associated with the Arctic mid-latitude climate linkages by using the dataset from the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) project; and (3) short-term sea-ice prediction and development of navigation support systems and a wave-ice interaction model for the Northern Sea Route. These observational and numerical studies will contribute to a comprehensive understanding of polar predictabilities. We will use research vessels to make atmospheric measurements and deploy wave buoys, and validate the impact of observations on weather and sea ice forecasts by using numerical experiments.

Radiosonde observations from RV Mirai

Radiosonde observations from RV Mirai

RV Mirai cautiously nosing her way through a thin ice area

RV Mirai cautiously nosing her way through a thin ice area


Waves In Ice (WII) Buoys deployed during R/V Mirai Arctic cruise 2016

Cooperative Institutions / International Projects

Alfred Wegener Institute (Germany), Norwegian Polar Institute (Norway), Korean Polar Research Institute (Korea), Environment Canada (Canada)
World Weather Research Programme - Polar Prediction Project (WWRP-PPP)

Implementation Structure

Name Institutes
Jun Inoue National Institute of Polar Research
Hajime Yamaguchi The University of Tokyo
Takuji Waseda The University of Tokyo
Mio Matsueda University of Tsukuba
Takeshi Tamura National Institute of Polar Research
Tomoko Koyama National Institute of Polar Research
Masatake Hori National Institute of Polar Research
Tsubasa Kodaira The University of Tokyo
Liyanarachchi Waruna Arampath De Silva The University of Tokyo
Takehiko Nose The University of Tokyo
Akio Yamagami University of Tsukuba
Name Institutes
Natsuhiko Otsuka Hokkaido University
Toshihiro Ozeki Hokkaido University of Education
Satoru Adachi NIED
Amin Chabchoub The University of Sydney
Adrean Webb Kyoto University
Kazutaka Tateyama Kitami Institute of Technology
Kazutoshi Sato Kitami Institute of Technology
Daiki Nomura Hokkaido University
Noriaki Kimura The University of Tokyo
Akihisa Konno Kogakuin University
Jyunji Sawamura Osaka University
Takatoshi Matsuzawa NMRI
Toshiyuki Takagi National Institute of Technology, Kushiro College
Takumi Matsunobu University of Tsukuba
Takuya Nakanowatari Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute
Koji Shimada Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology
Jumpei Yamamoto Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology
Chisa Kiyabu Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology
Rio Maya Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology
Eri Yoshizawa Korea Polar Research Institute

Study Sites (Map)

  • Northern Sea Route (NSR)
  • Arctic Region
  • Mid- and High-latitudes

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